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Martes, 8 de Setiembre del 2009

por Nouriel Roubini (*)

¿Hacia dónde se dirige la economía americana y mundial? El año pasado había dos bandos en debate. Uno sostenía que la recesión en EEUU tendría forma de V: corta y poco profunda. Duraría sólo ocho meses, como las dos recesiones anteriores de 1990-1991 y 2001, y el mundo se desacoplaría de ella.

Otros, incluido yo, sostuvieron que, dados los excesos de apalancamiento del sector privado (en viviendas, entidades financieras y empresas), sería una recesión en forma de U: larga y profunda. Duraría unos 24 meses y el mundo no se desacoplaría.

Hoy, después de veinte meses de recesión en EEUU, que pasó a ser mundial en el verano de 2008 con un reacoplamiento en masa, la idea del desacoplamiento en forma de V ha quedado descartada. Esta es la peor recesión en EEUU y mundial en 60 años. Si se acaba al final de este año, como es lo más probable, habrá sido tres veces más larga y unas cinco veces más profunda -desde el punto de vista de la reducción acumulativa de la producción- que las dos anteriores.

Los economistas hoy convienen que la recesión ya ha pasado, que la economía de EEUU y la mundial volverán rápido a crecer y no ven peligro de recaída. Lamentablemente, ese nuevo consenso podría ser tan erróneo como equivocados han estado en los tres últimos años quienes sostenían la hipótesis en forma de V.

Los datos de EEUU -aumento del desempleo, reducción del consumo de las familias, descenso aún de la producción industrial y debilidad del mercado de vivienda-, indican que su recesión aún no ha concluido. Un análisis similar de muchas otras economías avanzadas indica que, tal como en EEUU, falta muy poco para tocar fondo, pero aún no se ha tocado. La mayoría de las economías de los países emergentes pueden estar volviendo al crecimiento, pero sus resultados son muy inferiores a su potencial. Además, por diversas razones, es probable que el crecimiento en las economías avanzadas siga siendo anémico y muy inferior a lo normal durante al menos un par de años.

Es probable que por la primera razón haya un freno a largo plazo del crecimiento: las familias necesitan desapalancarse y ahorrar más, lo que limitará el consumo durante años. En segundo lugar, el sistema financiero -tanto los bancos como las entidades no bancarias- está muy dañado. La falta de un crecimiento sólido del crédito obstaculizará el consumo y el gasto en inversión privados.

En tercer lugar, el sector empresarial afronta una saturación de la capacidad y es probable que, si el crecimiento es anémico y persisten presiones deflacionistas, la recuperación de la rentabilidad sea débil. Con ello, no es probable que las empresas aumenten los gastos de capital.

En cuarto lugar, el apalancamiento del sector público mediante grandes déficit presupuestarios y acumulación de deuda podría bloquear una recuperación del gasto privado. Además, los efectos de la política de estímulo se disiparán a principios del año próximo, con lo que hará falta una mayor demanda privada para apoyar el crecimiento continuo.

Ahora la demanda privada interna -y en particular el consumo- es débil o se está reduciendo en países muy gastadores (EEUU, el Reino Unido, España, Irlanda, Australia, Nueva Zelanda, etc.), mientras que no aumenta lo suficiente en países muy ahorradores (China, Asia, Alemania, Japón, etc.) para compensar la reducción de sus exportaciones netas. De modo que hay una disminución mundial de la demanda agregada en comparación con la saturación de capacidad de la oferta, lo que impedirá una sólida recuperación mundial.

Además, ahora hay dos razones para temer una recesión con dos bajadas. Primero, podría ocurrir que no se aplicara bien la estrategia de salida del alivio monetario y presupuestario, porque las autoridades reciben duras críticas tanto si actúan a ese respecto como si no. Si se toman en serio sus déficit presupuestarios (y una posible monetización de éstos) y suben los impuestos, reducen el gasto y enjugan el exceso de liquidez, podrían socavar la recuperación ya débil.

Pero, si mantienen grandes déficit presupuestarios y siguen monetizándolos, en algún momento -luego que las actuales fuerzas deflacionarias lleguen a estar más controladas- , los mercados de bonos se rebelarán. Ahí las perspectivas inflacionarias aumentarán, como también los rendimientos de los bonos estatales a largo plazo, y la recuperación quedará bloqueada. Una segunda razón es que los precios del petróleo, energía y alimentos, pueden estar aumentando más rápido de lo que lo justifican los datos económicos fundamentales y la desviación de la liquidez acumulada hacia la caza de activos y la demanda especulativa podrían hacer que aumenten más. En 2008 el petróleo a US$ 145 fue un punto de inflexión para la economía mundial, pues creó una grave crisis de ingresos para EEUU, Europa, Japón, China, India y otros países importadores de crudo. Si fuerzas especulativas semejantes lo condujeran velozmente hasta US$ 100 la economía mundial, apenas recuperada, no podría soportar una crisis de contracción.

Así pues, el término de esta grave recesión mundial estará más cerca a fines de año que ahora, la recuperación será anémica en vez de sólida en las economías avanzadas y existe un peligro en aumento de una recesión con dos bajadas. Las recientes recuperaciones de los mercados de valores, materias primas y crédito, pueden haberse adelantado a la mejora de la economía real. En ese caso, no puede estar demasiado lejos una corrección.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini16/Spanish

(*) Presidente de Roubini Global Economics y profesor de la Stern School of Economics de la U. de Nueva York.

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http://www.reviewsontwitterfollowers.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/getting-more-followers-on-twitter

my blog post - Jueves